In the Beginning… There was only Bitcoin…
These days, the expanding crypto harbor is filled with every type of inflatable swappable floatable imaginable. All these “boats” are rising on the $2T crypto tide.
BTC dominance is down, but that’s not a function of BTC. Imagine the vol and price movements this week if all of that mcap was piling into BTC and ETH only (deriv and ETF products aside). Liquid supply is all-time low; people be hodling BTC, not trading wildly. But why not also piling into BTC?
I was investigating WTAF XRP was moving again as it has been. Then I was reminded at the long, long list of shitcoins. I sound like an old man when i say: I can't keep up with the A to Z list of aave, rune, haven, hex, sol, sushi…and each seems to have it’s army of fanatics, apes and shillers.
My narrative for this is: The crypto asset class has been balkanised and The Money is chasing gainz by buying in to anything and everything because Alt Szn. Retail Psychology 101: the Regular Jo, Junwei and Jeevan on the street feel more comfortable buying 1000 of something at 0.05, rather than 0.001 of something at 50,000. I don’t have the bandwidth to chase infinity shitcoins and hope they go to $1. I’ll follow 1 coin and wait till it goes to infinity.
For the 2013, 2017 vets, you experienced seeing the then mcap buy into BTC and a handful of alts. There’s a pendulum swing here of where the money is going and like most systems, it’ll eventually swing through it’s phases of stable and unstable equilibria. As BTC moves to a phase where it matures and becomes Gold, then Real Estate may be a generation who “can’t afford to buy a house”. Retail may not arrive to BTC as it did in previous cycles, so we may not see the wild take off and blow off. Instn money entering won’t be bag-holders on this run.
TL;DR: The slower movements and spikes we see in BTC now is prob because larger crypto mcap is spread thinner. Wait for Alts’n’Shits season to end, then money moves back to the dom coins. I expect slow-and-stead upwards movement of $BTC, not the meme rocket.
For those old enough to remember it… Splitters!